上海体育学院学报

2018, (06) 42-50,97

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中国体育彩票排列三的有意择号指数构建与国际比较
Construction and International Comparison on the Index of the Lottery Players' Conscious Selection for Pick 3 of Sport Lottery in China

李刚;韩辰;昂歌尔
LI Gang; HAN Chen; ANG Ge'er

摘要(Abstract):

以4个国家的7支三位数彩票为对象,设计2项指数及其他指标,通过数理统计与计量回归,考察彩票投注者有意择号行为的程度和表现形式。结果显示:中外彩票投注者存在共性,即存在程度相近的有意择号行为,喜欢投注当地文化吉祥号码、三同号和上连号,在短期内表现出赌徒谬误;中国彩票尤其是体育彩票排列三的投注者更强烈地试图从历史数据中预测中奖号码,短期和长期均表现出更明显的赌徒谬误。建议:中国体育彩票发行机构应向投注者普及科学的概率常识,形成以娱乐为主的健康投注文化。
This study took seven lotteries in four countries both in China and abroad and tried to explore the degree and manifestations of the lottery players' conscious selection behavior by constructing two indices and other variables, with the methods of mathematical statistics and econometric regression. The results find that there do exit similarities internationally:all the lottery players tend to behave the conscious selection with the same degree, picking the lucky numbers in their culture and the triple or upward numbers, and show Gambler's Fallacy in short run. The Chinese lottery players, especially those for the pick 3 of sport lottery, are strongly keen to predict the winning numbers through past ones, showing the significant Gambler's Fallacy in both short and long run. The study suggests that lottery issuers should disseminate scientific knowledge on the probability to players so that the healthy betting entertainment culture will be established.

关键词(KeyWords): 中国体育彩票排列三;有意择号;偏离指数;程度指数;赌徒谬误
pick 3 of sport lottery in China;conscious selection;bias index;degree index;gambler's fallacy

Abstract:

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基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金资助项目(16BTY048)

作者(Author): 李刚;韩辰;昂歌尔
LI Gang; HAN Chen; ANG Ge'er

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